“President of the Republic of Somalia H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met his Djiboutian counterpart Ismail Omar Ghuelleh in Nairobi, discussing cooperation on key issues of mutual interest for both countries, including security and protection of regional stability,” Somali president’s office tweeted.

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Mohamud denied that Addis Ababa had informed him in advance that it planned to lease a parcel of land along the Red Sea from the separatist region, but was only told that Somaliland’s leader was visiting Ethiopia.

Mohamud, whose government signed a defense agreement with Turkey to receive Ankara’s support in countering Ethiopia’s attempts to gain access to the Somali coast, insists that Mogadishu will defend itself if neighboring Addis Ababa does not refrain from acts of aggression.

“If Ethiopia continues to pursue that, Somalia has the right to defend itself by whatever means it can,” he added.

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The meeting also attended by the Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, saw discussions on the implementation of national weapons and ammunition management strategy to prevent weapons donated by the international partners to end up in the hands of Al-Shabaab, which continues to wage more than a decade-long insurgency in Somalia.

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Based on a statement provided to Reuters by the source, the draft proposal for the first stage of the deal would last 40 days and the prisoner-hostage exchange would be at an overall ratio of 10 to one.

Also included in the proposal:

* Both parties stop their military operations completely.

* Aerial reconnaissance operations over Gaza will stop for eight hours a day.

* All Israeli detainees, including women, children under 19 years of age, the elderly aged 50 years and above, and the sick, must be released in exchange for a specific number of Palestinian prisoners according to the numbers listed below.

* In exchange for the 40 detainees listed under the humanitarian category, approximately 400 Palestinian prisoners will be released, according to the ratio of 10 prisoners to one hostage.

* Gradual return of all displaced civilians – except men of military service age – to the northern Gaza Strip.

* After commencing the first phase, Israel will reposition its forces away from densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip.

* Commitment to bring in 500 trucks per day of humanitarian aid.

* Commitment to providing 200,000 tents and 60,000 caravans.

* Allowing the rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries in Gaza, including immediately allowing the entry of necessary equipment and providing shipments of fuel for these purposes, according to quantities to be agreed upon.

* Israel agrees to the entry of heavy machinery and equipment to remove rubble and assist with other humanitarian purposes, with the provision of fuel shipments necessary for these purposes, according to quantities to be agreed upon, provided that they increase over time. Hamas pledges not to use these machines and equipment to threaten Israel.

* It is understood that the arrangements agreed in the first phase will not apply to the second phase, which will be subject to subsequent separate negotiations.

Reporting by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Edmund Blair and Michael Perry

The 11-day exercise code-named “Justified Accord” began in Kenya on Monday, hosting about 1,000 military personnel and units from 23 countries. According to Kenyan and Somali media, the exercise is aimed at increasing combat and crisis response readiness of the participating countries.

The US military said Justified Accord “showcases the desire of US and partner nations to increase readiness and interoperability for regional security and crisis response” as the region grapples with more than a decade-long Al-Shabaab insurgency.

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Under the 10-year pact, Turkey will help defend Somalia’s long coastline and also rebuild the naval forces of the fragile Horn of Africa nation.

“We will help Somalia develop its capacity and capabilities to combat illegal and irregular activities in its territorial waters,” a Turkish Defense Ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said.

“With this agreement, Turkey will contribute to the recovery of natural resources within Somalia’s maritime borders,” said Yunus Turhan, a Turkey-Africa relations analyst at Haci Bayram Veli University in Ankara.

The Somali government hopes the deal will strengthen its ability to combat threats like piracy and terrorism, but also, more pointedly, “foreign interference.”

Some experts think otherwise.

“With the new deal, it means that the kind of control that Turkey will have in Somalia has become expansive and unlimited… It creates a lot of contention,” said Mohamed Gaas, an analyst who heads the Raad Peace Research Institute, a think tank in Mogadishu, Somalia.

“Because as Africans, we are concerned about a European country having that kind of influence or military power in the Horn of Africa.”

Exacerbating existing tensions

The Turkey-Somalia agreement comes amid growing frustration over Ethiopia’s maritime deal with Somaliland — a breakaway region of Somalia that is pushing for autonomy — which could escalate an already delicate conflict.

The deal would see Ethiopia gain access to the Red Sea and its major trade routes in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland.

Somalia has strongly opposed Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, stated that it was “illegal” and promised to protect Somalia’s maritime rights.

“Because Somaliland is not a sovereign state, Ethiopia’s deal with it is wrong and an affront to the sovereignty of entire Somalia,” Fidel Amakye Owusu, a geopolitical and security adviser told DW.

Meanwhile, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud explained the domestic implications of the Somalia-Turkey pact.

“We tell the Somali people that the agreement we have tabled to parliament today is solely about cooperation between Somalia and Turkey on maritime defense and economy. It is not in any way aimed at creating hatred or a feud with another country or government,” Mohamud said.

Owusu suggested that such assurances might not be enough especially from Ethiopia’s perspective.

“The whole country may rally behind the government if Turkey’s presence is perceived as a threat. Ethiopia having access to the sea is very popular among Ethiopians,” he said.

In the context of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, particularly in Tigray, Owusu noted that the presence of Turkey in the northern region might influence Ethiopia’s stance.

“Internal wars, be it with Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, could be addressed to pursue the external enemy,” he suggested, referring to Ethiopia’s three most powerful regions.

In Somalia, the deal with Turkey could complicate internal power dynamics and potentially impact ongoing conflicts.

“The region is already in turmoil, terrorism going on, hunger, droughts and famine. We don’t have an extra issue that can lead to unnecessary anger, death, and war. It’s only a political solution and not the use of hard power,” Owusu said.

Regional Implications

The deal further cements Turkey’s position as a major player in Somalia. Already its leading economic partner, Turkey boasts a large military base in the country and has trained thousands of Somali security forces.

This increasing influence is viewed with concern by some, who worry about the potential for regional instability and the overshadowing of other international actors.

Some experts think these fears are unfounded as there has been long term military cooperation between Somalia and Turkey.

“In 2017 Turkey opened its first overseas military training centre in Mogadishu. This is not a military base. It’s a military training centre. So it’s the very backbone of the Somali defense capacity in tackling al-Shabab,” Turhan said.

Concerned about the developments, Molly Phee, the top US diplomat for Africa, held individual meetings in Addis Ababa with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and in Mogadishu with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

She said the United States is willing to assist them in improving their communication.

“The region can ill-afford more conflict,” she said, adding that they are “encouraging all sides to deescalate the tensions that were provoked” by a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Somaliland and Ethiopia on January 1.

But Owusu said the challenge goes beyond Somalia and Ethiopia.

“Any negotiations that have been pushed by the AU (African Union) and IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) are going to be ignored because Somalia has already outsourced its security responsibility to Turkey,” he told DW.

“Somalia Aviation ordered Qatar Airways to fly 40,000f while already Ethiopia Airways is flying 39000ft. But traffic collision avoidance systems alarmed,” Somaliland representative to Kenya Mohamed Barawani tweeted.

“This is very alarming and dangerous that Somalia’s Aviation Authority is risking international flights,” he added.

Somalia’s civil aviation authority has not yet responded to the allegations, but Mogadishu earlier accused authorities of the break-away region of engaging in attempts to disrupt flights over the country’s airspace with the help of an unnamed foreign nation.

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Attending a state funeral held for Dahable a day after his body was flown to Hargeisa, Bihi threatened retaliation if authorities in Mogadishu fail to explain the motive behind his murder.

“This man was a politician, did not threaten anyone but was only taught how to communicate with civilian passenger planes,” Bihi told hundreds of people who were attending the funeral.

“This is not a secret and I ask the government of Hassan Sheikh what did this man do to deserve murder and if we do not get an answer, we will recognize it as deliberate.”

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The two called for the need to respect the sovereignty of Somalia and agreed to reject Ethiopia’s move to infringe on the territorial integrity of the war-torn Horn of Africa nation.

Bilateral relations on key areas as well as the conflict in neighboring Sudan were among other issues the two leaders discussed.

Egyptian President earlier said his government would defend Somalia in case of a war over Addis Ababa’s alleged attempts to annex parts of the country’s northern breakaway region of Somaliland.

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Landlocked Ethiopia agreed a memorandum of understanding on Jan. 1 to lease 20 km (12 miles) of coastline in Somaliland – a territory that Somalia says it owns, even though the northern region has enjoyed effective autonomy since 1991.

Ethiopia said it wants to set up a naval base there and offered possible recognition of Somaliland in exchange – prompting a defiant response from Somalia and fears the deal could further destabilise the Horn of Africa.

“If Ethiopia insists, Somalia will resist and will refuse,” Mohamud told Reuters on Tuesday in an interview at the heavily fortified presidential palace in Mogadishu.

“If they come into the country, Somalia will do everything that it can to defend itself.”

He did not go into further detail on what action Somalia might take. The Horn of Africa has experienced repeated conflicts, feeding humanitarian crises in areas prone to drought. Neighbouring Ethiopia and Somalia fought over territory in 1977-1978 and 1982.

Mohamud said he would only agree to discuss the matter with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed when the government in Addis Ababa renounces its intention “to take part of our country”.

Ethiopia’s government spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Abiy has previously said Ethiopia has no plans to start a conflict with Somalia and is merely trying to address its need for sea access.

MILITANT THREAT

Mohamud said he was not considering kicking out the nearly 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia as part of an African Union peacekeeping mission fighting militants from al Shabaab, an al Qaeda affiliate.

Analysts and diplomats fear a withdrawal of Ethiopian troops would further destabilise Somalia, where al Shabaab attacks have killed thousands of civilians and soldiers since 2006.

Somalia and several Western countries, including the United States, which regularly carries out strikes against militants in Somalia, have said Ethiopia’s port deal has boosted al Shabaab’s recruitment efforts.

Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia in late 2006 to oust an Islamist movement from which al Shabaab originated.

Mohamud said his government’s estimates showed al Shabaab had recruited between 6,000 and 8,000 new fighters in January alone.

Analysts and diplomats interviewed by Reuters were sceptical of that number, estimating the number of new recruits in the hundreds.

Editing by Aaron Ross and Andrew Heavens